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Future of the car

The future of the car is a controversial topic, with some advocates arguing that the car has no future, and others that the car will in the future supplant most other forms of transport.

The main trend at the beginning of the 21st century is an increase in the number of cars in Asia.

There are significant challenges in the near future to continued use of the car:

• Petroleum refining and car use are major factors in pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.
• 50-70% of US oil production is consumed by cars and trucks. This is more due to the size, weight, shape and power of conventional cars than to necessity.
• Cars are one of the most dangerous form of transport. 1 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide.
• Increasing population and prosperity tends to increase traffic congestion.

Technological advances

There are many possible advances in technology that could influence the future of the car (NB: This section is most controversial. Please see the discussion.):

• Duraluminum, fiberglass and carbon fiber will continue to replace heavier steel.
• Hybrid cars and more advanced combustion engines (eg. gas turbines) will improve fuel efficiency. Toyota intends to have hybrid versions for all its models by 2012, including the hybrid Toyota Prius which is already available. Ford intends to make five hybrids available by 2008. Both Ford and GM have also begun to develop hybrid SUV's.
• Utilisation of waste heat from the engine as useful mechanical energy through exhaust powered steam, stirling engines, thermal diodes or etc.. [1]
• E911 compliant mobile phones required in the US by 2006 can be used to coordinate ridesharing.
• Improvements to hands-free technology will increase driver safety.
• Radio technology (DSRC or wireless vehicle safety communications) will permit on-board collision warnings.
• Traffic lights will continue to become smarter. This could include short range milimeter band radar, neural network processors and sharing wireless networks with the cars.
• The smart car and driverless car making driving easier and safer.
• Cars linking up to form platoons and car-trains.
• Dualmode cars platooning on a guideways or a Personal Rapid Transit system, such as ULTra, for increased speed, safety and economy.
• Dualmode or cars able to platoon that use relatively small electric motors and fuel supplies or battery reserves for door-to-door service off electrically powered arteries.
• Battery electric vehicles have the potential of using locally available sustainable energy resources while at the same time reducing vehicle energy requirements by 1/2 to 1/4 when using batteries to store electricity.
• Hydrogen cars could also use sustainable energy resources and water. The resulting hydrogen could be burnt in an engine or converted back into electricity by a fuel cell and its support systems instead of a battery to be powered as an electric vehicle. Due to the additional conversion losses and added distribution and support logistics overall efficiency may remain no better than current ICE ("internal combustion engine") vehicles. Rather it is far simpler to transmit locally available sustainable electricity directly into the batteries of an otherwise hydrogen car.
• Alternative fuels are being proposed : alcohol fuel, water (see hydrogen fuel), air (see air car), garbage, hemp oil, magnetism, solar power, Tesla electric cars (with no car batteries), and high speed electric cars (freeway-capable).
• Nanotechnology-enhanced cars will be stronger than steel which can help to reduce weight and better protect passengers.
• The potential application of magnetic levitation to transportation has been known since the 19th century and been implemented in numerous Magnetic levitation trains. Although trains with fixed guideways are not cars, since cars are somewhat smaller they could be loaded onto trains to move them rapidly across country for long distances. This would obviously require a committed national infrastructure construction effort. Due to their lack of rolling friction and smooth ride they can travel much faster than conventional trains. While high speeds dramatically increase aerodynamic drag, its small frontal with only one lead car area makes it less of a factor than with cars. Laminar flow losses are insubstantial, and evacuating the atmosphere in a tunnel would nearly eliminate both of these losses and allow for supersonic speeds.
• Although flying cars have been proposed for decades, cost and air traffic control issues have so far prevented mass use of private aircraft. Energy consumption is also considerably greater for current aircraft than typical cars. Though NASA is said to be currently working on a system whereby everyone who intends to fly would have his own personal air space.

External links

Cars specifically

• What if Cars Could Drive Themselves? (from U. Washington's Innovative Transportation Technologies website)
• Hypercar Concept - Rocky Mountain Institute

Transportation technology

• Roadmap of Key Developments in transportation
• Article on platooning and e-guideways from Francis Reynolds, grandfather of dualmode.
• Fuel-Cell Hype vs. Economic Reality, audio interview with Matt Wald
• Wired Magazine, How Hydrogen Can Save America*
• The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs (2004) National Academy of Engineering (NAE), Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (BEES)
• Urban Light Transport website
• Alternative Fuel Vehicle Training From the National Alternative Fuels Training Consortium.

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